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新聞及活動 |
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Take a macro view when investing in Forex |
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| Publication : |
Oriental Daily News / 東方日報 |
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| Date/Page : |
5th November, 2007 (pB10) |
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Synopsis :
(英文翻譯) |
Mirza Baig, Deutsche Bank FX strategist, said forex differs from bond and equities markets, apart from technical analysis, investors have to understand the fundamental economy of the countries. He said after the Fed rate cut last week, investors have to look at a bigger picture when trading forex. He anticipated USD to weaken 5 – 10%. Further weakening of USD depends on the real impact of subprime on US consumption, market liquidity and the credit condition. Asked whether another round of rate cut would be foreseeable, he said that would subject to economic data and prospect. He said CAD is facing contrasting forces. On the one hand, Canada’s economy is subject to that of the US, on the other hand that it is an exporter of oil which would sustain its currency. Target price of CAD is 1.04 in 12 months. He said JPY is to appreciate and the 12-months target price is 99. Advanced investors could consider non USD crosses. He favors Euro / GBP which will reach 0.72.
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中文原文請按此 -  See actual article |
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Norwegian Krona is a rising star of carry trade |
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| Publication : |
iMoney Magazine / 智富 |
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| Date/Page : |
3rd November, 2007 (pg118-119) |
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Synopsis :
(英文翻譯) |
There were several rate hikes in ECB this year and so were at the Scandinavian countries. Investors are now raising eye brows on the Scandinavian currencies with their solid economies. The Norwegian Krona is the third best performing currency this year after Brazilian Real and Australian Dollar. Average appreciation of NOK, SEK and ISK in the past year was 13.8% of which Norwegian Krona has gone up 17%, the strongest since Sept 1992. Norway is in the rate hike cycle since 2005 and its central bank has raised rate 12 times to 5%. Market anticipates another 25bp hike in 08. Some carry trade investors trade on the currency in that regard. Deutsche Bank FX strategist Mirza Baig favors the Swedish Krona.
He advised investors to do some research before investing in a country’s currency. The country’s macro economy, its GDP, and investment environment would affect the currency’s direction.
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中文原文請按此 - See actual article |
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A weak USD continues, Euro and AUD to climb in short run |
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| Publication : |
Sing Tao Daily / 星島日報 |
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| Date/Page : |
30th October, 2007 |
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Synopsis :
(英文翻譯) |
USD has been a weak currency for the past few years while Euro, CAD, AUD and NZD are rising. Analysts said USD would not twist its weakness in the short run. But the outlook of rate is uncertain, medium term investors should not long the currency at the moment. In the short run, they favor Euro and AUD.
Mirza Baig of DB FX strategist said he anticipated USD to depreciate 5% to 10% in the short run and Euro / USD could reach $1.45. Baig said USD was about to bottom out. He anticipated USD to stablise at mid 08 and rebound. He said USD / JPY will appreciate to 110 while Japan to raise hike once by year end at 25 basis point.
On high rates currencies, Baig said AUD & NZD would remain strong in the short run but anticipated them to fall in 12 months’ period. He advised investors to invest in markets of which they were familiar with the macro economic situation.
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中文原文請按此 - See actual article |
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A weak USD continues, Euro to reach 1.45 by year end |
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| Publication : |
Hong Kong Economic Times / 香港經濟日報 |
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| Date/Page : |
30th October, 2007 (pg.B21) |
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Synopsis :
(英文翻譯) |
Euro, AUD appreciates strong under the anticipation that US Fed to cut rate. Mirza Baig, FX strategist at Deutsche Bank said emerging market currencies to appreciate at a faster pace than G10 under a weak USD environment. He said USD to fall 5% - 10% in the near term.
Baig said half of its trade partners are from developed countries while half from developing countries. The USD weakness against G10 is steeper than that of emerging markets. He said USD would have bigger room for depreciation against emerging markets. He said strong commodities demand from China and India has accelerated the pace of global inflation while cost of import is rising in emerging markets such as China, Singapore, HK and Taiwan. The Asian Central banks would allow faster acceleration of their currencies to balance higher import prices.
Baig is in favor of CNY, SGD, NTD, BRL and SEK
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中文原文請按此 - See actual article |
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Deutsche Bank, a solid trading platform |
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| Publication : |
Sing Tao Daily / 星島日報 |
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| Date/Page : |
25th June, 2007 (pg.G4) |
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Synopsis :
(英文翻譯) |
Deutsche Bank, the three-year consecutive leader in the global FX market, offers a 24-hours FX trading platform to investors.
Investors could trade 27 currency pairs in the dbFX portal with spread as low as 2 PIPs. It also provides 9 different languages supporting hotline service.
There is the preset spread function for investors to capture profit or minimize loss.
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中文原文請按此 - See actual article |
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dbFX, diversify investment to reduce risk |
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| Publication : |
Hong Kong Economic Times / 香港經濟日報 |
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| Date/Page : |
31th May, 2007 (pg.SA4) |
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Synopsis :
(英文翻譯) |
K Duker, Global co-head of dbFX said correlation of FX and equity is low while FX can bring relatively reasonable return when the equity market is flat.
As there is no time restriction in FX transaction and the liquidity is the highest among the investment, this is the best tool for carry trade of some assets. There are investors who favor high rate currency.
After adjusted the volatility, investment return of equity is similar to that of FX.
K Duker said USD will continue to stay weak against Euro and market focus is on JPY. According to PPP, JPY is below market level. With the net capital inflow, JPY will turn strong.
DB is the largest FX trading house by Euromoney for the 3rd consecutive year. And the dbFX Chinese portal is launched, investors could enjoy competitive pricing as low as 2PIP.
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中文原文請按此 - See actual article |
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Access is just Click Away |
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| Publication : |
South China Morning Post |
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| Date/Page : |
27th May, 2007 |
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See actual article |
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Currency Trading Just Clicks Away |
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| Publication : |
South China Morning Post |
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| Date/Page : |
17th May, 2007 (pg.8) |
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See actual article |
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Weak USD may strengthen in H2 |
| Publication : |
Ming Pao / 明報 |
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| Date/Page : |
16th May, 2007 (pg.B9) |
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Synopsis :
(英文翻譯) |
Deutsche Bank Global Head of FX Strategy Bilal Hafeez said he anticipated the weak USD to strengthen in the second half of 2007 because the ECB is likely to stop raising rates after the June rise while the Fed is likely to have a rate hike at end of the year owing to a change of macro economic conditions in the two continents.
He suggested investors sell overvalued currencies such as Sterling or the Euro and buy USD or Yen.
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中文原文請按此 - See actual article |
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Finding the right forex strategy |
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| Publication : |
Financial Times |
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| Date/Page : |
16th May, 2007 (pg.8) |
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See actual article |
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Investment Forum: An overview of various countries' interest rates and macro economies |
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| Publication : |
Oriental Daily / 東方日報 |
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| Date/Page : |
14th May, 2007 |
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Synopsis :
(英文翻譯) |
Though Fed and ECB maintained rate unchanged last week, Bank of England, as market expected, raised rate by 25bp. Under a rally rate economy seems to perform well but when it enters a rate reduction period, economy tends to turn weak. The investment forum has invited Deutsche Bank Global Head of FX Strategy Bilal Hafeez and Blackrock Merrill Lynch Investment Managers to talk about their views on economic outlook and interest rates.
Hafeez expects Fed to cut rate by 25 to 50bp at year end. As on the Bank of England rate hike, he said this would be the last round in this year. The rate will maintain at 5.5% level to prevent economic slow down.
The Japanese economy is improving and the trade surplus is strong which support JPY. The Bank anticipates JCB to raise rate 25bp in second half which will impact the carry trade position. JPY could rise to 100 next year. He said investors could buy JPY when it reaches 163 against Euro and 120 against USD.
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中文原文請按此 - See actual article |
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High interest currencies lose shines |
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| Publication : |
Sing Tao Daily / 星島日報 |
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| Date/Page : |
10th May, 2007 (pg.05) |
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Synopsis :
(英文翻譯) |
Many investors favor high rate currencies such as AUD or NZD but market finds the accumulated increase has been large and investors should wait till it corrects. Bilal Hafeez said AUD to USD should have around 5 – 10% adjustment before investors should consider buying in.
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中文原文請按此 - See actual article |
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US inflation eases, time to buy Euro and GBP |
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| Publication : |
Sing Tao Daily / 星島日報 |
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| Date/Page : |
10th May, 2007 (pg.05) |
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Synopsis :
(英文翻譯) |
A strong Euro seems to be fading so is this the right moment to buy? There are diverse market views, but according to FX specialists, if investors are bearish on USD, this is the right moment to buy the Euro and Pound because it is believed that if the Euro weakens it will begin to do so in the second half.
Deutsche Bank Global Head of FX Strategy, Bilal Hafeez, said the performance of the Euro and GBP in the second half will be weaker than in the first half because it is believed the ECB will end the current series of rate hikes in June. He favors the JPY which he tips to strengthen in the second half. He expects carry trade on JPY to slow down because the JCB is likely to raise rates in September or early next year. He also favors the USD because the US economy is much stronger than the market has expected.
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中文原文請按此 - See actual article |
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DB: Euro rate to peak, USD to turn strong |
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| Publication : |
Hong Kong Economic Times / 香港經濟日報 |
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| Date/Page : |
10th May, 2007 (pg.B19) |
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Synopsis :
(英文翻譯) |
Though the market is expecting the Fed to raise rates in the near future, and the double deficit issue has weakened the USD performance, Deutsche Bank Global Head of FX Strategy Bilal Hafeez goes against the mainstream and boldly forecasts that the USD will appreciate in the next 3 – 5 years.
Hafeez expects the ECB to raise its rate to 4% in the next round and the Euro to command support at the 1.4 level before heading down. He said the Euro is 20% higher than its actual value according to PPP measurement. He predicts the Euro could fall to 0.9 in the next 3 – 5 years against a strengthening USD. This view differs from other experts.
He also recommends that investors buy the JPY which he expects to strengthen. From the PPP measurement, JPY is below its reasonable value. He said investors could buy JPY at 120 to take profit when it appreciates.
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中文原文請按此 - See actual article |
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ECB: rate hike pace to halt at 4%? |
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| Publication : |
China Business News |
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| Date/Page : |
10th May, 2007 |
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Synopsis :
(英文翻譯) |
Deutsche Bank Global Head of FX Strategy Bilal Hafeez said he anticipated the ECB rate hike to halt at 4% in a TV interview. He anticipated Euro to fall afterwards.
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中文原文請按此 - See actual article |
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dbFX brings benefits to retail investors |
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| Publication : |
Financial Times |
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| Date/Page : |
09th May, 2007 (pg.8) |
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See actual article |
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USD is cyclical, unwind of carry trade is beneficial to JPY |
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| Publication : |
Sing Tao Daily / 星島日報 |
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| Date/Page : |
09th May, 2007 (pg.09) |
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Synopsis :
(英文翻譯) |
Catherine Hardiman, global co-head of dbFX from London said a weak USD has resulted in record highs for the Euro, Sterling, NZD and AUS against the USD. This has forced foreign investors to short the USD. She also said a slowdown of the carry trade would likely benefit the JPY.
She said while cyclical variables may have driven recent USD weakness, in their view, structural issues such as demand from central banks for non-USD assets as well as the still large external imbalance continue to weigh on the USD. Therefore the USD may remain under pressure against the EUR and GBP as long as the ECB and Bank of England show signs of raising rates and the market continues to price in expected rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. She added that in the big picture, USD weakness is beginning to appear more stretched against the GBP and EUR using a measure such as PPP, meaning any further declines in the USD might have to be against Asian currencies in order to close global imbalances.
Looking ahead she predicted that carry trades are at significant risk. If one looks at the deviation from purchasing power parity of a currency carry basket composed of the top-3/bottom-3 yielding G10 currencies, this is at its most overvalued level since 1992. When carry trades have been at such valuation extremes in the past, they have suffered from significant corrections. Indeed, the carry trade basket fell by more than 30% in 1992. Aside from valuation, significant monetary policy tightening has taken place in the G10 and is likely to weigh on liquidity and global growth in the next few quarters and also make carry trades less attractive.
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中文原文請按此 - See actual article |
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Deutsche Bank alert: carry trade faces high risk |
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| Publication : |
Hong Kong Economic Times / 香港經濟日報 |
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| Date/Page : |
08th May, 2007 (pg.A8) |
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Synopsis :
(英文翻譯) |
Bilal Hafeez, Global Head of FX Strategy at Deutsche Bank yesterday said carry trade cycles usually last around 7 – 8 years and the Yen carry trade cycle has lasted for 8 years. There is a high risk that the carry trade will unwind this year or next.
He said Yen weakness is coming to an end. The PPP on the Yen is below reasonable levels and the slowdown in capital outflow in Japan is beneficial to the Yen.
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中文原文請按此 - See actual article |
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dbFX brings benefits to retail investors |
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| Publication : |
Financial Times |
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| Date/Page : |
08th May, 2007 (pg.8) |
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See actual article |
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Profit-taking strategy for retail investors |
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| Publication : |
Hong Kong Economic Times / 香港經濟日報 |
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| Date/Page : |
19th April, 2007 (pg.SA2) |
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Synopsis :
(英文翻譯) |
dbFX strategist, Bilal Hafeez, said investors should avoid taking long carry trade positions this year, looking instead to buy the JPY against currencies which are at valuation extremes such as the GBP, EUR and NZD. The time horizon for this trade would be 6-12 months.
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中文原文請按此 - See actual article |
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Carry trade correction continues, risk increased |
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| Publication : |
Hong Kong Economic Times / 香港經濟日報 |
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| Date/Page : |
19th April, 2007 (pg.SA2) |
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Synopsis :
(英文翻譯) |
Though carry trade brings attractive returns to investors, with the market turning more volatile, the risk of conducting carry trade has also increased. Deutsche Bank Global Head of Foreign Exchange Strategy Bilal Hafeez said if one looks at the deviation from purchasing power parity of a currency carry basket composed of the top-3/bottom-3 yielding G10 currencies, this is at its most overvalued levels since 1992. When carry trades have been at such valuation extremes in the past, they have suffered from significant corrections. He said the JPY would be the currency which is the most likely to gain in an environment where carry trades suffer. We believe there are three reasons for JPY strength this year. First, the yen remains very cheap on a purchasing power parity basis, with USD/JPY more than 20% above levels which PPP would suggest.
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中文原文請按此 - See actual article |
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Carry trade, buy low sell high |
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| Publication : |
Hong Kong Economic Times / 香港經濟日報 |
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| Date/Page : |
19th April, 2007 (pg.SA2) |
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Synopsis :
(英文翻譯) |
Bilal Hafeez, Deutsche Bank Global Head of Foreign Exchange Strategy, said carry trades in currency markets have been performing very well over the last few years. Indeed, many popular carry crosses such as the AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY are in their seventh year of positive returns. Generally speaking, the FX carry trade has been helped by an environment of solid global growth, abundant liquidity and increased central bank transparency which has compressed risk premium across asset classes and reduced FX volatility. This has helped high-yielding currencies such as GBP, AUD and NZD, and put significant pressure on currencies with low interest rates such as the JPY and CHF.
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中文原文請按此 - See actual article |
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Online FX trading, pips as low as 2 basis point |
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| Publication : |
Apple Daily / 蘋果日報 |
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| Date/Page : |
13th March, 2007 (pg.S6) |
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Synopsis :
(英文翻譯) |
Advancement of modern technology facilitates investment transactions. Deutsche Bank launched dbFX end of last year and some of the trading pips can be as low as 2 bp. Michele Wee, Head of eFX Asia at Deutsche Bank, said dbFX is launched to fulfill the needs of retail clients who request for easily accessible platform to trade FX. As DB is the largest FX trading house both globally and in Asia, it offers competitive edge against other competitors.
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中文原文請按此 - See actual article |
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Deutsche steps into retail forex trade |
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| Publication : |
South China Morning Post |
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| Date/Page : |
22th January, 2007 (pg.04) |
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See actual article |
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dbFX online offers spreads as low as 3 points |
| Publication : |
Ming Pao / 明報 |
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| Date/Page : |
28th November, 2006 (pg.B9) |
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Synopsis :
(英文翻譯) |
Global turnover on FX has grown dramatically in the past decade. It is anticipated FX trading will grow to 3.6 trillion trades in 2007. Riding on the growing demand, DB launched its online margin trading platform www.dbfx.com.hk recently, offering a new alternative to retail investors. The portal runs round the clock with 24 trading pairs and 9 supporting languages. It offers spreads as low as 3 pips. K. Duker of DB said that such competitive spreads are possible because of DB’s strength in the FX market and the stability of global market shares in the industry. The minimum deposit is USD10,000.
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中文原文請按此 - See actual article |
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FX trading surges, DB targets retail investors |
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| Publication : |
Hong Kong Economic Times / 香港經濟日報 |
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| Date/Page : |
20th November, 2006 (pg.A8) |
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Synopsis :
(英文翻譯) |
Global turnover in FX has grown dramatically in recent years. With advancements in modern technology, retail investors have more access to competitive pricing information which in turn makes the market more efficient and lowers trading costs. K Duker says some market participants invest in FX while others make use of it for arbitrage. Asked why DB chose to launch their FX platform in HK, he said it was because Hong Kong investors are more sophisticated and are familiar with the market. The DB platform has spreads as low as 3 pips. Deutsche Bank's Asian and global market shares stand at 18% and 19% respectively.
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中文原文請按此 - See actual article |
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FX trading platform: dbFX offers competitive spreads |
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| Publication : |
Sing Tao Daily / 星島日報 |
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| Date/Page : |
20th November, 2006 (pg.B07) |
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Synopsis :
(英文翻譯) |
DB has launched its FX margin trading platform, offering 24 hour online margin foreign exchange trading services to clients around the world. Clients will have the benefits of trading streaming quotes on competitive spreads in 24 currency pairs, including major currencies such as USD, Euro, Yen and GBP. dbFX offers an execution-only service made available primarily to an individual client base with customer support in several languages, including English and Chinese.
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中文原文請按此 - See actual article |
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DB launches online margin FX platform |
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| Publication : |
Hong Kong Commercial Daily / 香港商報 |
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| Date/Page : |
20th November, 2006 (pg.A05) |
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Synopsis :
(英文翻譯) |
DB has launched its new FX margin trading platform, offering 24-hour online margin foreign exchange trading services to clients around the world. Clients will have the benefits of trading streaming quotes on competitive spreads in 24 currency pairs, including major currencies such as USD, Euro, Yen and GBP. dbFX is an execution-only service made available primarily to an individual client base with customer support in several languages, including English and Chinese.
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DB launches online margin FX platform |
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| Publication : |
Sing Pao / 成報 |
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| Date/Page : |
20th November, 2006 (pg.B02) |
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Synopsis :
(英文翻譯) |
DB has launched a new FX margin trading platform offering trading on streaming quotes with competitive spreads in 24 currency pairs, including major currencies such as USD, Euro, Yen and GBP. Asia is one of the fastest growing regions for FX trading and accounts for a major part of the global USD 2.7 trillion daily turnover in FX transactions. Deutsche Bank has chosen Hong Kong as the first Asian market to launch dbFX, because it is a market with a sophisticated retail investor base. The Bank's overall global foreign exchange market share stands at 19.26%, 7.4 ppt ahead of its nearest rival.
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Hong Kong Economic Times / iMoney clippings: Copyright 2008.
Hong Kong Economic Times. All rights reserved. Reprinted by permission.
Hong Kong Economic Journal clippings: Permission number 20080716065.
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